Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

$1.5m Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Abbas Araghchi

$18k Vol.

Jared Kushner

$15k Vol.

2%

Steve Witkoff

$19k Vol.

2%

Kazem Gharibabadi

$39k Vol.

1%

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani

$95k Vol.

6%

Majid Takht-Ravanchi

$40k Vol.

1%

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

$129k Vol.

Ishaq Dar

$60k Vol.

Nick Stewart

$30k Vol.

Masoud Pezeshkian

$77k Vol.

7%

J.D. Vance

$86k Vol.

Rafael Grossi

$69k Vol.

9%

Marco Rubio

$49k Vol.

6%

Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi

$67k Vol.

Donald Trump

$79k Vol.

3%

Ahmad Vahidi

$35k Vol.

3%

Pete Hegseth

$25k Vol.

Esmail Qaani

$20k Vol.

Palmer Luckey

$3k Vol.

Elon Musk

$6k Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$32k Vol.

Newt Gingrich

$4k Vol.

Mohammed bin Salman

$38k Vol.

3%

Jared Kushner

$215k Vol.

Yes

Steve Witkoff

$69k Vol.

Yes

Abbas Araghchi

$46k Vol.

Yes

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani

$115k Vol.

Yes

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Created At:Aug 12, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC


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