Israel closes its airspace by...?

$27.5m Vol.

Sep 1, 2026

September 30

$28k Vol.

August 31

$1.5m Vol.

1%

May 8

$495k Vol.

No

May 31

$2.5m Vol.

No

May 24

$571k Vol.

No

June 15

$5.7m Vol.

No

June 30

$4.8m Vol.

No

June 12

$148k Vol.

No

June 14

$787k Vol.

No

June 8

$1.1m Vol.

No

June 9

$1.3m Vol.

No

June 10

$1.0m Vol.

No

June 13

$117k Vol.

No

June 11

$453k Vol.

No

July 31

$3.3m Vol.

No

July 15

$1.8m Vol.

No

July 7

$200k Vol.

No

August 15

$1.0m Vol.

No

July 24

$821k Vol.

No

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Created At:May 4, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC


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