Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

$469k Vol.

Oct 20, 2026

October 20

$30k Vol.

1%

October 22

$39 Vol.

5%

October 21

$20k Vol.

3%

October 23

$0 Vol.

1%

October 24

$8 Vol.

October 25

$8 Vol.

3%

October 26

$0 Vol.

4%

October 27

$0 Vol.

3%

October 28

$0 Vol.

4%

October 29

$0 Vol.

4%

October 30

$0 Vol.

4%

October 31

$0 Vol.

4%

October 19

$4k Vol.

86%

October 4

$5k Vol.

Yes

October 5

$2k Vol.

Yes

October 6

$18k Vol.

Yes

October 9

$3k Vol.

Yes

October 10

$49k Vol.

Yes

October 11

$3k Vol.

Yes

October 12

$2k Vol.

Yes

October 13

$16k Vol.

Yes

October 14

$61k Vol.

Yes

October 15

$6k Vol.

Yes

October 16

$34k Vol.

Yes

October 17

$28k Vol.

Yes

October 18

$168k Vol.

Yes

October 3

$1k Vol.

No

October 7

$16k Vol.

No

October 8

$1k Vol.

No

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.

Created At:Oct 3, 2026, 3:37 PM UTC


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