GPT-6 released by…?

$1.7m Vol.

Jan 1, 2027

December 31, 2026

$168k Vol.

1%

November 30, 2026

$20 Vol.

3%

October 31, 2026

$5k Vol.

3%

September 30, 2026

$314k Vol.

18%

September 15, 2026

$6k Vol.

23%

August 31, 2026

$279k Vol.

December 31, 2025

$108k Vol.

No

March 31, 2026

$0 Vol.

No

June 30, 2026

$220k Vol.

No

July 31, 2026

$84k Vol.

No

August 14, 2026

$171k Vol.

No

August 7, 2026

$110k Vol.

No

August 21, 2026

$190k Vol.

No

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Created At:Aug 7, 2025, 8:45 PM UTC


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