Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

$683k Vol.

Oct 18, 2026

October 27

$120 Vol.

3%

October 21

$1k Vol.

6%

October 28

$236 Vol.

3%

October 26

$211 Vol.

2%

October 30

$233 Vol.

3%

October 20

$26k Vol.

1%

October 31

$543 Vol.

October 23

$5k Vol.

1%

October 24

$7k Vol.

1%

October 25

$4k Vol.

1%

October 29

$9k Vol.

3%

October 22

$21k Vol.

6%

October 17

$83k Vol.

5%

October 1

$550 Vol.

Yes

October 2

$749 Vol.

Yes

October 3

$4k Vol.

Yes

October 4

$74k Vol.

Yes

October 5

$9k Vol.

Yes

October 6

$7k Vol.

Yes

October 7

$5k Vol.

Yes

October 8

$4k Vol.

Yes

October 9

$7k Vol.

Yes

October 10

$3k Vol.

Yes

October 11

$2k Vol.

Yes

October 12

$76k Vol.

Yes

October 13

$7k Vol.

Yes

October 14

$74k Vol.

Yes

October 15

$59k Vol.

Yes

October 16

$120k Vol.

Yes

October 18

$43k Vol.

Yes

October 19

$30k Vol.

Yes

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.

Created At:Oct 1, 2026, 12:12 AM UTC


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