
Israel closes its airspace by...?
$27.5m Vol.
Sep 1, 2026

September 30
$28k Vol.

August 31
$1.5m Vol.
1%

May 8
$495k Vol.
No

May 31
$2.5m Vol.
No

May 24
$571k Vol.
No

June 15
$5.7m Vol.
No

June 30
$4.8m Vol.
No

June 12
$148k Vol.
No

June 14
$787k Vol.
No

June 8
$1.1m Vol.
No

June 9
$1.3m Vol.
No

June 10
$1.0m Vol.
No

June 13
$117k Vol.
No

June 11
$453k Vol.
No

July 31
$3.3m Vol.
No

July 15
$1.8m Vol.
No

July 7
$200k Vol.
No

August 15
$1.0m Vol.
No

July 24
$821k Vol.
No
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Created At:May 4, 2026, 11:52 PM UTC




