
GPT-6 released by…?
$1.7m Vol.
Jan 1, 2027
December 31, 2026 68%
November 30, 2026 58%
October 31, 2026 50%
September 30, 2026 49%

December 31, 2026
$168k Vol.
1%

November 30, 2026
$20 Vol.
2%

October 31, 2026
$5k Vol.
4%

September 30, 2026
$314k Vol.
19%

September 15, 2026
$6k Vol.
24%

August 31, 2026
$279k Vol.

December 31, 2025
$108k Vol.
No

March 31, 2026
$0 Vol.
No

June 30, 2026
$220k Vol.
No

July 31, 2026
$84k Vol.
No

August 14, 2026
$171k Vol.
No

August 7, 2026
$110k Vol.
No

August 21, 2026
$190k Vol.
No
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At:Aug 7, 2025, 8:45 PM UTC















