
Fed rate cut by...?
$3.3m Vol.
Oct 8, 2026
December Meeting 11%
October Meeting 4%
September Meeting 1%
June Meeting 0%

December Meeting
$295k Vol.

October Meeting
$124k Vol.

September Meeting
$400k Vol.

June Meeting
$785k Vol.
No

January Meeting
$588k Vol.
No

April Meeting
$543k Vol.
No

March Meeting
$0 Vol.
No

July Meeting
$579k Vol.
No
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Created At:Dec 16, 2025, 7:36 PM UTC

















